Prior to the COVID-19 crisis unfolding, most US employers were anticipating healthcare cost increases in the range of 4-7%, based on trends in 2018 and 2019. However, COVID-19 has drastically altered the healthcare space and thus dismantled most employers’ previous predictions. While some are now anticipating decreased healthcare costs for 2020, this does not mean good news for employers. In fact, the monumental impact COVID-19 has had on the healthcare space could mean employers will be facing unprecedented cost increases in 2021 and 2022. These impacts are something employers must be preparing for now, rather than later.
In this post, we’ll explore the major ways COVID-19 has impacted the healthcare landscape. We’ll delve into what this means for businesses in the near-term (the duration of 2020), as well as crucial action steps employers must be taking now to prepare their businesses for 2021 and beyond.
How has COVID impacted healthcare costs?
Due to the COVID crisis, by late March 2020, many American businesses had temporarily ceased operations and closed their physical offices. The immediate impact of the virus was a significant surge in the demand for hospital space in markets with significant virus spread, such as New York. However, the most significant shift across the country was a stark decline in elective care.
For the most part, over the past few months no procedures or surgeries deemed as “nonessential” have been conducted, in order to preserve hospital space and supplies for those with COVID. The shutdown of nonessential medical services and procedures lead to the furloughs of tens of thousands of healthcare workers.
As a result of all these challenges, in the second financial quarter, Americans are receiving substantially less care than anyone could have ever predicted. This impact will result in an unprecedented $140B to $375B decrease in care costs (and this figure includes the costs of COVID-19 treatments).
However, this short-term cost decrease will do little to offset substantial future increases. Models predict that in 2021 and 2022, the trend of rising healthcare costs will reset at a higher lever with a higher slope indefinitely. Employers must be planning and preparing for these changes now by working hand-in-hand with their benefits broker to enact effective cost-control strategies.
What’s the bottom-line?
As an employer, it’s important to realize that COVID-19 has substantially altered the extent to which employees have been able to receive the care they need. Although this shift will result in short-term healthcare cost decreases, the long-term impact is grim. Employees will be driven to more expensive care settings as healthcare becomes available again, resulting in substantial costs increases in 2021 and 2022. Employers must begin preparing for these costs now, by working proactively with their broker on impactful cost-control methods.